Bloomberg Intelligence Warns: Could Bitcoin Really Crash to $10K?

If you're anything like me, every time Bitcoin takes a dip or rockets up, you're refreshing charts and hunting for insights. Well, Bloomberg Intelligence just dropped a big one—a chilling forecast that has the crypto and stock market crowd on edge. And yes, they’re hinting at the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting $10,000 if certain economic dominos fall.

Let’s break it all down, piece by piece—without the jargon, and with just enough realism to keep your feet on the ground (or at least on your hardware wallet).

The Warning: S&P 500 to 4000?

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone recently shared a sobering take during a conversation with Scott Melker (aka The Wolf of All Streets). According to Bloomberg's equity team, the S&P 500 could fall to 4000, representing a roughly one-third correction.

Now, on the surface, that’s not doomsday. After all, we’ve been there before—back in 2020, during the pandemic crash. But the bigger concern is how a correction of that size could ripple into risk assets. That includes Bitcoin.

Why It Matters for Bitcoin

McGlone points to a couple of high-level data points:

  • The S&P 500 to global equities ratio recently hit historic highs—and is now breaking down.

  • The U.S. market cap to GDP ratio peaked at 2x GDP—levels previously seen only in 1929 (USA) and 1989 (Japan) before their respective crashes.

These indicators scream one word: Deflation. And historically, deflation doesn’t play nicely with speculative assets like crypto.

Here’s where it gets intense: If the S&P drops to 4000, Bloomberg’s model suggests Bitcoin could fall back to its 200-week moving average—around $10,000 to $17,000. That’s a hard pill to swallow for anyone who bought in above $50K.

The Contrarian Take: Is Bitcoin Stronger Now?

Scott Melker offered a more optimistic view. He noted that even though the stock market has already corrected over 10%, Bitcoin hasn’t retested its old lows. That could mean Bitcoin is actually showing resilience in the face of broader market turmoil.

Melker also believes that global liquidity—now at an all-time high due to interest rate cuts and easing by non-U.S. central banks—could help Bitcoin maintain strength. Let’s face it, Bitcoin loves liquidity.

$10K Bitcoin? A Real Possibility or Fear Mongering?

Personally, I think $10K is not impossible, but highly unlikely unless we face a full-blown global recession. Bitcoin’s fundamentals have drastically improved since 2019:

  • More institutional adoption

  • Regulatory clarity in many regions

  • Infrastructure like ETFs and layer-2 solutions

  • Growing use cases and public awareness

In other words, Bitcoin isn’t the same asset it was in 2018.

Final Thoughts

So, is Bloomberg Intelligence being overly bearish? Maybe. Maybe not. But either way, it’s wise to stay alert. Whether you're HODLing or trading the swings, this is a time for level-headed decision-making—not panic. History tells us markets are cyclical. The smart money knows how to wait.



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